Tuesday, December 31, 2013

2013 totals

I have published some download statistics of The Little Crane That Could. Like 2012, the year 2013 was another blast.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Bitcoin, logarithmically

Some time ago, I purchased a bitcoin for a little under $300,- CAD. My reasoning went like this:

  • There is a non-zero chance of bitcoin replacing USD as default currency. Let's put it at 1 in 1000.
  • There is a hard limit of 21M bitcoins.
  • If in 2030, the world uses bitcoins, then those 21M coins will represent the entire money supply of the world's default currency.
  • My 1 bitcoin will represent 1/21Mth of the world's money in 2030, with a 1:1000 chance.
  • The world money supply divided by 21M and then divided by 1000, is still worth a lot more than the $300,- I paid for it.
In addition, I've started mining the bitcoin as well, using an ASIC miner. The bitcoin price fluctuates wildly, and it's hard to make sense of it. However, I find that treating the price logarithmically helps a lot. You can actually make out a trend, when you use that. Here is the price up to dec 11, 2013.